A significant change in electoral projections has caught the attention of political analysts and campaign strategists alike.
According to Newsweek, Real Clear Polling's Electoral College map forecast has moved Minnesota from leaning towards Vice President Kamala Harris to a toss-up state in the 2024 presidential race.
This shift occurred on September 23, altering the previous projection from July 27 that had favored Harris.
The reclassification of Minnesota, with its 10 Electoral College votes, has potential implications for the upcoming election. It puts former President Donald Trump ahead in the overall Electoral College projection with 219 votes compared to Harris' 215, with 104 votes still considered up for grabs in various battleground states.
Historical Context And Current Polling
Minnesota has consistently voted for Democratic presidential candidates in the last 12 elections, making a potential Trump victory there a significant upset.
Recent polls, however, show a tightening race. A Minnesota Star Tribune/MPR News/KARE 11 poll conducted from September 16 to 18 gives Harris a 5-point lead (48% to 43%) among likely voters. Similarly, a MinnPost-Embold Research poll from September 4 to 8 also shows Harris leading by 5 points (49% to 44%).
Jessica Mason from Embold Research commented on these results, stating that while the race could be closer, "we would still consider Kamala to be leading this race in Minnesota."
Expert Analysis And Electoral Implications
The changing status of Minnesota in electoral projections has prompted analysis from political experts. Larry Jacobs, director of the Center for the Study of Politics and Governance at the University of Minnesota, suggested that undecided voters could play a crucial role.
Jacobs noted:
It's quite possible—in Minnesota and elsewhere—that two-thirds of the 5 percent to 10 percent undecided will break in favor of Trump and tilt the race.
This potential swing in undecided voters could have significant implications for the final outcome in Minnesota and potentially the national election.
Broader Electoral Landscape
The shift in Minnesota's status comes amid a complex national electoral picture. Real Clear Polling's updated forecast shows several battleground states, including Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, as well as Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District, still in play.
Other forecasters and pollsters present a somewhat different picture. Real Clear Politics gives Harris a 5.3% average lead in Minnesota based on recent polling. The 538 poll tracker shows Harris with a 5.9% lead, while the Cook Political Report lists Minnesota as "likely" Democratic.
These varying projections highlight the uncertainty surrounding the upcoming election and the potential for shifts in traditionally Democratic-leaning states.
Historical Performance And Future Outlook
In the 2020 election, Joe Biden won Minnesota by 7 points, an improvement from Hillary Clinton's narrow 1.5-point victory in 2016. This historical context adds another layer of intrigue to the current projections and polling data.
The reclassification of Minnesota as a toss-up state underscores the dynamic nature of electoral forecasts. While current polls still favor Harris, the tightening race and the potential impact of undecided voters have led to increased uncertainty. As the 2024 election approaches, Minnesota's 10 Electoral College votes could prove crucial in a close national contest. The shifting projections highlight the importance of each state in the Electoral College system and the potential for unexpected changes in traditionally reliable voting patterns.
