In a surprising move just ahead of high-level diplomacy, U.S. President Donald Trump has paused a significant military aid package to Taiwan as trade discussions with China gather momentum.
According to The Indian Express, the $400 million pause in weapons assistance has sparked unease in Taipei and Washington as it came just before a key call between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.
The aid, which includes lethal ammunition and autonomous drone systems, had been slated for delivery to Taiwan as part of a congressional allocation first approved in 2022. Its suspension — revealed by The Washington Post on Friday — came only hours before Trump spoke directly with Xi. After the conversation, Trump said the two nations were making headway on several fronts, including trade disputes, restrictions on TikTok, and the crackdown on fentanyl exports.
Trump told reporters that the talks had been "productive," and confirmed expectations for face-to-face meetings with Xi, first in Korea this October, followed by a formal visit to Beijing sometime next year. The aid freeze is not final and could still be lifted, but its timing has led many to speculate that it might serve as a bargaining tool during the ongoing negotiations over tariffs and technology regulations.
The aid delay has had swift reverberations. Taiwanese officials and U.S. defense contractors were both reportedly caught off guard, with many international firms attending this week's defense exposition in Taipei said to be searching online for details. So far, Taiwan's government has neither confirmed nor denied whether they were notified of the pause beforehand, stating only that American support for Taiwan’s defense has historically been consistent.
Taiwan Responds Amid Concerns Over Strategy Shift
President Lai Ching-te of Taiwan addressed the development on Saturday, framing it within the broader need for military readiness. He emphasized that maintaining regional peace depends on the self-ruled island's ability to strengthen both its armed forces and civilian resilience. "To avoid war and defend peace, we must build defense capabilities and societal resilience through continued preparedness," Lai said, reiterating his administration's commitment to national security. Taiwan aims to elevate its defense spending significantly in the coming years, targeting expenditures that total 5% of the island's gross domestic product by 2030.
This approach reflects growing concern over China’s military posture. The Chinese Communist Party views Taiwan as part of its territory and has stated openly that it has not ruled out using force to bring the island under its control. This long-standing stance, combined with frequent naval drills and fighter jet crossings into Taiwanese airspace, continues to raise tensions along the contested Taiwan Strait.
China’s Ambitions Meet U.S. Strategic Priorities
Tensions in the region have escalated notably during Trump’s presidency. In his first term alone, he approved over $10 billion in arms sales to Taipei — the most robust such effort since the 1990s. This support has traditionally been seen as part of the longstanding U.S. policy to help Taiwan defend itself under the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act.
Nonetheless, since returning to the White House, Trump has increasingly scrutinized the value of such aid. He has suggested Taiwan should provide greater financial contributions to its own defense and reciprocate U.S. support with strategic or economic benefits. This growing transactional approach may signal a reevaluation of U.S. engagement in the Asia-Pacific region as a whole.
Analysts say the suspension of military deliveries fits a broader pattern. Some believe this may be less about a policy reversal and more about using Taiwan-related issues as leverage. William Yang, a senior analyst at Crisis Group, argues that what Trump considers a temporary tactic could become far more lasting if Beijing moves to make the pause permanent through ongoing diplomatic links.
Analysts Debate Potential Long-Term Implications
"I think what Trump thinks of as a temporary tactical concession on the issue of Taiwan is in fact creating an opportunity for China to prolong this pause into something that could potentially become a new reality," Yang said.
Similar concerns were echoed by Craig Singleton of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies. He believes China is wagering that symbolic actions — like addressing fentanyl exports or resuming diplomatic visits — may secure it more substantive concessions on sensitive topics like export controls and tariffs, as well as arms transfers to Taipei. Amanda Hsiao, China director at Eurasia Group, forecasts that support for Taiwan may resume in the following months. "It’s quite likely that arms sales, Lai transit through the U.S., and other acts of support to Taiwan will resume after the Trump visit to China,” she stated.
Looking Ahead to the October Summit in Korea
Looking forward, geopolitical observers are closely watching the October meeting between Trump and Xi in Korea. Talks are expected to touch on global trade policies, technology exchanges, and cooperation on drug enforcement, but Taiwan is certain to remain a pivotal and sensitive issue. The United States has walked a diplomatic tightrope for decades when it comes to Taiwan. It maintains unofficial relations with the island while formally recognizing the government in Beijing. As both Chinese and U.S. interests evolve, this balance is proving increasingly difficult to maintain.
For now, many of Taiwan’s next defense steps remain uncertain. Though the weapons aid pause may yet be reversed, the island’s leaders continue to stress that being caught unprepared is not an option. International partners and defense industries will continue monitoring developments closely in the months ahead.
