President Joe Biden has approved a classified nuclear strategic plan that expands the focus to include potential conflicts with Russia, North Korea, and China, according to a report by The New York Times.
RBC Ukraine reported that the unprecedented strategy, known as "Nuclear Employment Guidance," marks the first time multiple states have been identified as potential threats in a single document.
The highly classified strategy, approved in March, is available only to a select group of Pentagon officials. While the White House has not officially announced the approval, two senior administration officials have disclosed the changes. The new approach reflects the evolving global nuclear landscape and the growing concerns about coordinated threats from multiple adversaries.
Shifting Focus To Multiple Nuclear-Armed Adversaries
The updated strategy primarily addresses the rapid expansion of China's nuclear capabilities under President Xi Jinping. China has abandoned its previous minimum deterrent strategy in favor of efforts to match or exceed the arsenals of Washington and Moscow.
Recent commercial satellite images have revealed the construction of new missile silos in China, indicating a significant increase in its nuclear capacity.
North Korea's growing nuclear arsenal also plays a crucial role in shaping the new US strategy. Under Kim Jong Un's leadership, Pyongyang has doubled its nuclear weapons to over 60, posing an increasingly serious challenge to the United States.
The strategy also considers Russia's nuclear capabilities and recent threats, particularly in the context of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. The document takes into account the potential for coordinated actions between Russia, China, and North Korea, reflecting the deepening military cooperation between Moscow and Beijing.
Unprecedented Challenges In Global Nuclear Dynamics
Vipin Narang, an M.I.T. nuclear strategist who served in the Pentagon, stated: "The president recently issued updated nuclear weapons employment guidance to account for multiple nuclear-armed adversaries."
The New York Times reports that the recent collaboration between Russia and China, along with North Korea and Iran supplying conventional arms to Russia for its involvement in Ukraine, has significantly altered the perspective in Washington. Previously, the possibility of American foes aligning their nuclear threats to surpass the U.S. nuclear capabilities was considered unlikely.
This shift in strategy comes at a time when global nuclear tensions are rising. Iran plans to declare itself a nuclear state by the end of 2025, while South Korea may consider developing its own nuclear weapons in response to threats from North Korea.
Implications For US Nuclear Deterrence Policy
The new strategy aims to deter Russia, China, and North Korea simultaneously, presenting an unprecedented challenge for US nuclear policy.
Richard N. Haass, a former senior State Department and National Security Council official, emphasized the gravity of the situation:
It was an important moment. We are dealing with a Russia that is radicalized; the idea that nukes wouldn't be used in a conventional conflict is no longer a safe assumption.
The document also notes that the next US president, who will take office in January 2025, will face a radically changed and extremely unstable nuclear environment compared to the situation three years ago.
Conclusion
President Biden's approval of the new nuclear strategy marks a significant shift in US policy, acknowledging the complex and evolving nature of global nuclear threats. By focusing on multiple potential adversaries, including Russia, China, and North Korea, the strategy aims to address the challenges posed by coordinated actions and expanding nuclear arsenals. As tensions continue to rise and nuclear capabilities advance worldwide, this new approach underscores the critical importance of maintaining effective deterrence in an increasingly unpredictable global landscape.
