WASHINGTON — Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst is expected to announce in September that she won’t seek reelection in 2026, opening up a Senate seat that could reshape the state’s political landscape.
According to Military.com, her anticipated retirement adds to a rising number of Republican Senate departures ahead of a critical election cycle, giving Democrats a potential opportunity in what has been a reliably red state.
According to four individuals familiar with the matter who were not authorized to speak on the record, Ernst plans to step away from Senate politics after serving two terms. Her exit marks the first time since 2014 that Iowa will have an open Senate seat, setting the stage for what’s likely to become a competitive race.
Ernst was first elected in 2014, winning an open race during a Republican wave. She secured reelection in 2020, winning by over six percentage points and earning nearly 52% of the vote. As the first woman from Iowa elected to Congress, she has played a significant role within the GOP, including a stint in Senate leadership as the No. 3 Republican. Serving in the Army National Guard as a lieutenant colonel and deploying to Iraq, Ernst brought a military background to Capitol Hill and was at one time floated as a potential vice-presidential pick. Over the past decade, she has become a recognizable figure in Washington and a consistent vote within the Republican bloc in the Senate.
Political Shifts in Iowa Set the Stage
Her departure comes shortly after Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds announced she also would not seek another term, signaling a broader reshuffling across the state’s Republican ranks. That change has already fueled speculation among GOP insiders about who will step up in a potentially high-stakes election year.
Among those viewed as likely contenders is Rep. Ashley Hinson, now in her third House term representing Eastern Iowa. Hinson won her 2024 race convincingly with 57% of the vote, and Republican strategists see her as a strong candidate, particularly given her fundraising prowess and familiarity with swing voters. Still, her entry into the Senate race could make her House district more competitive. Republican strategist Luke Martz noted the ramifications, saying, “We’re going into what could be a tumultuous midterm, with two seats already highly targeted. This would be a third, depending on who we nominate.”
Ernst's Record and Past Controversies
Throughout her time in office, Ernst has garnered both praise and criticism. In early 2025, she faced pressure from some within Trump’s base over her hesitation to back Pete Hegseth for Secretary of Defense. Ernst cited concerns over his past remarks about women in combat and an unresolved accusation of sexual assault, which Hegseth denies.
A survivor of sexual assault herself, Ernst has been vocal about confronting misconduct within military structures and helped push for reforms during her Senate career. In 2022, her vote to codify same-sex marriage protections drew rebuke from some conservatives, further straining her relationship with the party’s hardline members. She also sparked public backlash during a town hall exchange when a constituent argued that cuts to Medicaid could increase mortality. Ernst responded, “People are not ... well, we all are going to die,” a remark widely criticized by those advocating for healthcare access.
Speculation Mounts Over Senate Field
Despite those controversies, Ernst’s political operation appeared to be underway earlier this year. She had raised almost $1.8 million by mid-2025, was named a campaign manager in June, and was hosting her annual fundraiser this October. However, none of those developments prevented her from deciding to step aside.
Now, the focus turns to who might replace her. Aside from Hinson, two Republicans had already launched primary campaigns against Ernst before news of her expected departure: former state Sen. Jim Carlin and military veteran Joshua Smith. Both men could remain in the race, or new faces may emerge as the political landscape adjusts. On the Democratic side, several candidates have already announced bids. State Sen. Zach Wahls, state Rep. Josh Turek, Des Moines School Board Chair Jackie Norris, and former chamber of commerce head Nathan Sage are among those vying to flip the seat. Their campaigns aim to counter a decade-long Republican hold on statewide power.
Democrats Eye Gains in Shifting Landscape
While Iowa once leaned purple, the past decade has seen Republicans consolidate control. The GOP has held the governor’s mansion since 2010, both Senate seats since 2014, and Donald Trump won the state by a significant margin in three consecutive elections—the most recent by 13.2 percentage points.
Nevertheless, Democrats are trying to rebuild their infrastructure in the state, using criticisms of Ernst’s voting record and public statements to galvanize support. With key Republicans stepping down, party operatives see a narrow but real chance to make gains in 2026. So far, spokespeople for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, as well as for Ernst and Hinson, have declined to comment on the matter. The official announcement from Ernst is expected sometime in September, according to sources close to her team.
High-Stakes Contest Looms in 2026
With Iowa potentially hosting three contested major races in 2026, strategic decisions in both parties will play a significant role in shaping national politics. The open Senate seat, the gubernatorial race, and possible shifts in congressional representation all factor into the midterm equation.
For Ernst, her departure marks the end of an era in Iowa politics, closing a chapter defined by military service, party leadership, and controversy. For Republicans and Democrats alike, her seat will be both a symbolic and strategic prize. As the campaign season begins to take shape, voters in Iowa—and across the country—will soon see how the next generation of political leaders aims to influence the path ahead.
