The celestial threat of a massive asteroid sends shockwaves through the scientific community as astronomers track its potential collision course with Earth.
According to the New York Post, NASA has recently updated the probability of asteroid YR4 2024 striking Earth in 2032 to 1-in-38, marking the highest likelihood of impact ever recorded for this space rock.
The asteroid's potential impact zone encompasses eight densely populated cities, putting approximately 110 million people at risk.
Since its discovery in December 2024, the odds of collision have steadily increased from 1-in-83 to the current alarming figure of 2.6%. The European Space Agency maintains a slightly lower estimate of 2.4%.
Devastating potential impact threatens major cities
The celestial body measures between 131 and 295 feet in diameter, carrying destructive potential equivalent to 8 megatons of TNT. This force represents 500 times the power of the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima. The projected trajectory threatens major metropolitan areas, including Bogota, Lagos, Mumbai, and Chennai.
YR4 has earned a level three designation on the Torino Scale, which evaluates the danger of Near Earth Objects larger than 65 feet in diameter. This classification indicates a close encounter requiring careful attention from astronomers, particularly due to its potential for localized destruction.
Scientists continue monitoring the asteroid's path while acknowledging the fluid nature of impact predictions. Hugh Lewis, professor of astronautics at the University of Southampton, provides insight into the situation: "Just because it's gone up in the last week, doesn't mean that it's going to continue to do that."
Critical observation window closes as asteroid approaches Sun
The urgency to gather data intensifies as a significant observation challenge approaches. The asteroid will disappear behind the Sun in April, becoming invisible to Earth's ground-based telescopes until 2028. This creates a crucial timeline for scientists to collect as much information as possible.
The James Webb Space Telescope will play a vital role in the observation effort. Its infrared instruments will study the heat emanating from YR4, helping determine its precise size and potential impact effects. This data will prove crucial for understanding the extent of damage should the asteroid strike Earth.
NASA's Molly L Wasser addresses the uncertainty surrounding the situation in a recent blog post.
It is possible that asteroid 2024 YR4 will be ruled out as an impact hazard, as has happened with many other objects that have previously appeared on NASA's asteroid risk list. It is also possible its impact probability will continue to rise.
Space rock poses unprecedented challenge
YR4 2024, a newly discovered asteroid measuring up to 295 feet wide, currently holds the highest recorded probability of Earth impact at 2.6%. The space rock will remain hidden from most terrestrial telescopes between April 2025 and 2028 due to its position behind the Sun.
Scientists race against time to gather critical data using advanced tools like the James Webb Space Telescope, which will help determine the potential devastation if the asteroid maintains its collision course with Earth.
If it occurs in 2032, the impact could affect eight major cities and over 110 million people with a force equivalent to 500 Hiroshima bombs.
