An intensifying series of diplomatic and military moves has Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Donald Trump at the center of a high-stakes standoff.

According to CNN, new US intelligence indicates Israel is preparing for a possible military strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, even as Trump’s administration pursues a diplomatic deal to curb Tehran’s nuclear ambitions.

Multiple US officials told CNN that such a move by Israel would represent a dramatic break with President Trump’s stated policy of negotiations and could ignite a wider conflict in the Middle East at a time when regional tensions remain high following the Gaza war that began in 2023.

Israeli preparations prompt US concern

Recent intelligence assessments have raised alarm among US officials, as intercepted Israeli communications and observed military maneuvers suggest serious consideration of a strike. Preparations include movements of air munitions and the completion of significant air exercises, according to sources familiar with the matter. While these activities could be intended to pressure Iran diplomatically, they also signal that military action remains a real possibility.

US officials caution that there is no clear evidence Israeli leaders have made a final decision. Opinions within the US government are deeply divided regarding the likelihood of an Israeli operation. Much hinges on Israel’s perception of ongoing US-Iran nuclear negotiations and whether Trump’s team can secure an agreement acceptable to Israeli leadership.

A person with direct knowledge of US intelligence told CNN that “the chance of an Israeli strike on an Iranian nuclear facility has gone up significantly in recent months.” The prospect of a deal that leaves any of Iran’s uranium enrichment capability intact is a particular concern for Israel.

US diplomatic efforts and Israeli dilemma

Diplomatic efforts led by the Trump administration have included a direct letter to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in March, setting a 60-day deadline for nuclear talks to succeed. It has now been more than 60 days since the letter, and the first round of talks began 38 days ago. Trump has publicly warned that military action remains on the table if diplomacy fails but has also limited how long he is willing to negotiate.

A senior Western diplomat relayed that Trump communicated limited patience for the talks, telling the president that only weeks remained to reach a deal before considering military options. Meanwhile, the White House continues to pursue diplomacy, leaving Israel in a precarious situation. Netanyahu faces pressure to prevent what he considers a “bad deal” while not risking a rupture with Trump, who has differed with Israel on key security issues.

Jonathan Panikoff, a former senior regional intelligence official, explained, “At the end of the day, the Israeli decision-making is going to be predicated on US policy determinations and actions, and what agreements President Trump does or does not come to with Iran.” Panikoff also suggested Netanyahu would likely avoid a strike without at least tacit US approval.

Iran’s vulnerable position and Israeli strategy

Iran’s military capabilities are at their weakest in decades after Israeli strikes on missile production sites and air defenses in October, combined with economic hardship from ongoing sanctions. Israeli officials see this as a window of opportunity, according to US sources. However, US intelligence assessments warn that even a successful Israeli strike would only set back Iran’s nuclear program minimally, not eliminate it.

Israel’s military capacity to destroy Iran’s deeply buried nuclear facilities is limited without American support, particularly with midair refueling and specialized bombs. A source familiar with Israeli thinking told CNN that Israel would act alone if the US negotiates a deal deemed unacceptable.

One person familiar with US intelligence said, “I think it’s more likely they strike to try and get the deal to fall apart if they think Trump is going to settle for a ‘bad deal.’ The Israelis have not been shy about signaling that to us … both publicly and privately.”

Nuclear talks hit impasse as leaders dig in

Negotiations remain deadlocked, with Washington insisting Iran forgo all uranium enrichment capability—something Iran refuses, citing its rights under international law. Steve Witkoff, the US special envoy leading the talks, told ABC News, “We cannot allow even 1% of an enrichment capability” in any agreement.

Ayatollah Khamenei dismissed the prospects for a successful deal, declaring the US demand that Iran not enrich uranium a “big mistake.” Iran insists on its right to enrich uranium under the United Nations Treaty on Nuclear Non-Proliferation and refuses to relinquish that right.

Both the US and Iran have submitted proposals, but after more than a month of negotiations facilitated by Oman, there is currently no US proposal with President Trump’s approval. Further rounds of talks may take place in Europe this week, but progress remains elusive.