The United States faces significant challenges in its nuclear strategy as China continues to expand its nuclear arsenal.
According to a recent opinion piece in The Hill, the Biden administration's arms control and deterrence approach may jeopardize strategic stability with China. The analysis makes clear the need for a comprehensive plan that addresses nuclear threats from both Russia and China at once.
China's rapid nuclear expansion has raised concerns among U.S. policymakers and military strategists. The country is expected to possess up to 1,500 nuclear warheads by 2035, a significant increase from its current estimated stockpile. This growth presents new challenges for U.S. nuclear deterrence and arms control efforts, particularly as China remains reluctant to engage in traditional arms control negotiations.
China's Nuclear Expansion And U.S. Response
China's nuclear modernization program includes the development of new delivery systems, such as hypersonic glide vehicles and advanced intercontinental ballistic missiles. These advancements enhance China's ability to penetrate missile defense systems and increase the survivability of its nuclear forces.
The U.S. has responded to this growing threat by modernizing its own nuclear triad, which consists of land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched ballistic missiles, and strategic bombers. However, some experts argue that this modernization effort may not be sufficient to address the evolving nuclear landscape.
There is ongoing debate within the U.S. defense community about the appropriate force structure and deployment strategies needed to deter both Russia and China effectively. Some advocate for maintaining a larger nuclear arsenal, while others emphasize the importance of developing more flexible and responsive nuclear capabilities.
Challenges In Arms Control Negotiations
Traditional arms control approaches, such as those used with Russia, have proven ineffective in engaging China. In June 2023, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan offered to "engage China without preconditions" on arms control. However, China recently suspended fledgling arms control talks with the U.S., citing Washington's continued arms sales to Taiwan as a reason.
U.S. policymakers face the challenge of developing new approaches to arms control that can accommodate China's unique strategic posture. This may involve exploring alternative frameworks for dialogue, such as confidence-building measures or informal agreements on nuclear doctrines and force postures.
Some experts suggest that the U.S. should pursue a more assertive approach to nuclear policy to create incentives for China to engage in arms control negotiations. This could include allowing the New START treaty with Russia to expire in 2026 and initiating a new arms race to put the U.S. in a stronger bargaining position.
Balancing Deterrence And Stability
The U.S. must carefully balance its efforts to maintain effective deterrence against both Russia and China while also promoting strategic stability. This requires a nuanced approach that considers the unique characteristics of each potential adversary's nuclear posture and doctrine.
The Biden administration's current strategy focuses on investing in advanced non-nuclear capabilities to counter Chinese nuclear threats. However, critics argue that this approach may encourage China to further expand its nuclear arsenal and potentially lead U.S. allies to consider developing their own nuclear weapons.
National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan stated, "The U.S. is investing in cutting-edge non-nuclear capabilities…that can reach heavily-defended, high-value targets." Critics argue that this strategy may reduce the credibility of America's nuclear deterrent and encourage rivals to engage in more aggressive brinksmanship.
Conclusion
The United States faces complex challenges in adapting its nuclear strategy to address China's growing nuclear capabilities. The Biden administration's current approach to arms control and deterrence has been criticized for potentially undermining strategic stability with China. As China's nuclear arsenal continues to expand, policymakers must consider alternative strategies that may include a more assertive nuclear posture to create incentives for arms control negotiations. Balancing deterrence, stability, and arms control in this evolving nuclear landscape remains a critical challenge for U.S. national security.
