President Trump’s declaration that Russia is a “paper tiger” signals a surprising new position grounded in recently obtained U.S. intelligence. The findings reportedly show Moscow facing mounting battlefield losses and a deteriorating economy as its war against Ukraine drags on.
According to the New York Post, Trump’s statement came after meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly. While his remarks suggested a stronger commitment to Ukraine, administration officials described the shift as a calculated strategy to pressure Russia into negotiations.
Sources within and outside the administration said Trump’s comments are not evidence of an official change in U.S. policy but rather a deliberate effort to expose Russia’s vulnerabilities. The White House hopes highlighting Moscow’s struggles will make President Vladimir Putin more inclined to consider a truce, though he has so far rejected peace overtures from both Washington and Kyiv.
Trump’s UN remarks spark speculation
Trump unveiled his new stance after a high-profile speech at the United Nations and a private meeting with Zelensky. In a Truth Social post following the encounter, he warned that once Russians recognize the impact of the war on their economy, Ukraine could recover its lost territories “and maybe even go further.”
Asked directly whether the statement was intended as a negotiating tactic, a White House official acknowledged the purpose was “correct.” Another source close to the administration emphasized that the messaging was not a “substantive policy change” but a “clear and obvious negotiating tactic.”
Zelensky’s top aide, Andriy Yermak, expressed support for Trump’s evolving position, crediting extensive consultations and intelligence briefings. He said Trump’s growing understanding of Russian weaknesses was “absolutely normal” and a product of continued exchanges between U.S. and Ukrainian officials.
Intelligence reveals Russian weaknesses
Intelligence cited by officials highlights Russia’s collapsing economic and military performance. Analysts say Moscow has made only small territorial advances at an enormous human cost, suffering more than 130,000 casualties between May and August while gaining less than 2,000 square kilometers.
The Institute for the Study of War noted that casualty rates are “extremely heavy” compared to limited battlefield gains. Ukrainian leaders have dismissed Putin’s boasting of dominance as “fairy tales,” arguing that Russia’s capabilities are overstated.
At a press event with Zelensky, Trump appeared to acknowledge that he had acquired more “details than before,” prompting the Ukrainian president to welcome his deeper grasp of Russia’s setbacks. Both leaders publicly signaled optimism that strengthening U.S.-Ukrainian alignment could enhance leverage in pressuring Moscow.
Russian economy under added strain
Fresh intelligence also highlights serious declines in Russia’s revenue streams and domestic stability. International Energy Agency data showed Russian oil exports plunged 16% in the first eight months of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024.
In August alone, Russia’s oil income dropped nearly $1 billion from the previous month, underscoring the financial damage of sanctions and global market pressures. To counter the shortfall, the Kremlin’s Finance Ministry proposed hiking the country’s value-added tax to 22% while slashing its growth forecast to just 1%.
Energy disruptions from Ukrainian strikes have further compounded civilian hardships, leaving ordinary Russians struggling with shortages. Analysts warn that as Putin tries to balance his war budget with domestic demands, public patience could fray.
White House frames Russia as cornered
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt reinforced Trump’s messaging, stressing Russia’s weak strategic position despite its size and military capacity. She told Fox News the war’s progress proves Ukraine can withstand aggression, warning Moscow of consequences if it refuses to negotiate sincerely.
Vice President JD Vance echoed this view, saying the president’s statements reflected “the reality on the ground” rather than a new policy direction. He called Russia’s situation “very, very bad” should Putin continue to reject diplomatic compromise.
For Trump, the shift represents a notable rhetorical move aimed at rebalancing leverage in stalled peace efforts. While not a signal of increased military or financial aid, the strong language introduces greater pressure on Moscow as global attention turns back to Ukraine’s resilience.
