A startling analysis by a polar expert suggests potential military tactics in Donald Trump's ongoing pursuit of Greenland.
According to the Irish Star, the former U.S. president could theoretically employ a 900-mile naval blockade to isolate Greenland from crucial shipping routes, potentially forcing the semi-autonomous Danish territory into American control.
The contentious proposition emerged after Trump's recent declaration to Congress about acquiring Greenland, where he stated "We need Greenland for national security. One way or the other we're gonna get it." His statement drew mixed reactions from lawmakers, including applause from Vice President JD Vance.
Strategic value of Northwest Passage control
Dr. Linda Parker, a polar specialist and historian, outlined a hypothetical scenario where American forces could establish dominance over the Northwest Passage. This critical maritime route stretches 900 miles from Greenland's eastern boundary to Canadian Arctic waters.
The Northwest Passage represents a significant shipping shortcut, potentially reducing global trade routes by 4,000 miles. This route alternative eliminates the need for vessels to navigate around Cape Horn or through the Panama Canal, saving over two weeks of travel time.
Climate projections suggest that Arctic Sea ice will recede significantly by 2045, making the passage increasingly viable for international shipping. This environmental change could transform the route into a crucial artery for global commerce.
Massive military operation requirements
The proposed naval blockade would require substantial military resources, including 40 destroyers and frigates positioned strategically between Nuuk and Qaanaaq. The operation would also need 10 additional warships at Lancaster Sound and 20 icebreakers.
Dr. Parker, who co-founded the British Modern Military History Society, estimates the operation could cost upward of $50 billion and take a decade to implement. She explains this would still be more economical than attempting a full-scale invasion of Greenland.
The blockade strategy would effectively prevent ships from Greenland and potentially hostile nations like Russia and China from accessing the vital shipping route. This restriction could severely impact Greenland's economic prospects.
Economic pressure as diplomatic leverage
Dr Parker elaborated on the potential diplomatic implications in The European magazine:
As it stands, the Passage is largely impassable and is likely to remain that way until 2045 - the year experts predict global warming will have melted much of the sea ice. By that time, America's new naval fleet could be ready for action, hypothetically, of course. Using the icebreakers to clear a path, the vessels could slowly, surely, and surreptitiously make their way up and anchor along the 900-mile Passage with ease.
The timing of this analysis coincides with Greenland's parliamentary elections, where polling indicates most Greenlanders oppose becoming part of the United States. However, economic pressure through restricted maritime access could potentially influence future negotiations.
Control over the passage remains a point of international contention. While Canada claims sovereignty over the Northwest Passage, both the United States and European Union consider it international waters.
Complex geopolitical maneuver unfolds
The proposed strategy represents a significant escalation in Trump's longstanding interest in acquiring Greenland, which dates back to his 2019 purchase attempt during his first presidential term.
The semi-autonomous Danish territory possesses valuable untapped resources, including rare-earth minerals and potential offshore oil and natural gas deposits. These assets make it an increasingly important player in global resource politics.
The naval blockade proposal, while theoretical, highlights the complex intersection of military strategy, climate change, and international relations in Arctic geopolitics. The situation continues to evolve as global powers vie for influence in this resource-rich region.
