The United States is taking steps to counter a possible coordinated nuclear strike from China, Russia, and North Korea, according to a classified Pentagon document.
In March 2024, President Joe Biden secretly approved a significant change to America's nuclear defense strategy, shifting focus to address China's expanding nuclear arsenal and the potential for collaboration between Beijing, Moscow, and Pyongyang.
As reported by The Telegraph, this strategic shift reflects growing concerns about China's nuclear ambitions and the strengthening of military and political ties between the three nations. The new approach, outlined in a highly classified document known as Nuclear Employment Guidance, aims to prepare the US for simultaneous or sequential nuclear crises involving multiple adversaries.
Biden Administration's Covert Nuclear Strategy Revision
The White House did not publicly announce the updated strategy, which is reviewed every four years. The document exists only in paper form and is accessible to a select group of national security officials and Pentagon commanders. However, senior administration officials have made carefully worded public statements alluding to the change in focus.
Pranay Vaddi, the National Security Council's senior director for arms control and nonproliferation, indicated that the new strategy emphasizes the need to deter Russia, China, and North Korea simultaneously. This marks a significant shift from previous approaches, which may not have fully accounted for the potential of coordinated threats from multiple nuclear-armed adversaries.
Vipin Narang, another official and a professor of nuclear security at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, confirmed that the updated guidance specifically addresses the substantial increase in the size and diversity of China's nuclear arsenal.
China's Rapid Nuclear Expansion Raises Concerns
The Pentagon's China Military Power Report, released in October 2023, revealed that China's nuclear weapons stockpile had more than doubled in the previous three years. This rapid expansion caught the attention of US defense officials and experts, prompting a reevaluation of America's nuclear deterrence strategy.
According to the report, China is estimated to have around 500 operational nuclear warheads as of May 2023. Projections suggest this number could increase to 1,000 by 2030 and 1,500 by 2035, potentially matching the current deployments of the United States and Russia.
Tong Zhao, a senior fellow at the Carnegie China Research Centre, warned:
As US-China relations deteriorate and China embarks on a large-scale build-up of its nuclear forces, the security risks are rising. The changing dynamics in the nuclear landscape necessitate a careful recalibration of US defense strategies to maintain global stability and security.
Challenges In US-China Nuclear Dialogue
The US government has expressed concerns about the lack of engagement from China on nuclear safety and arms control issues.
Mallory Stewart, the assistant secretary for arms control, deterrence, and stability at the State Department, noted that Beijing appears to be following a similar approach to Russia by linking bilateral tensions to their willingness to participate in nuclear-related discussions.
Stewart stated that China is actively preventing dialogue between the two governments on improving nuclear safety. This lack of communication and transparency adds another layer of complexity to the already challenging task of maintaining global nuclear stability.
As tensions continue to rise and nuclear arsenals expand, the need for open channels of communication and mutual understanding becomes increasingly critical. The US strategy shift reflects a growing recognition of the evolving nuclear landscape and the potential for coordinated actions by multiple nuclear-armed states.
Conclusion And Implications For Global Security
The United States' revised nuclear defense strategy underscores the complex and evolving nature of global nuclear threats. By focusing on the potential for coordinated actions by China, Russia, and North Korea, the US aims to enhance its preparedness for a range of nuclear scenarios. This shift in approach reflects the changing dynamics of international relations and the ongoing expansion of nuclear arsenals, particularly in China. As global tensions persist, the importance of nuclear deterrence and arms control dialogue remains paramount for maintaining international security and stability.
