Intelligence reports indicating a potential nuclear escalation in Ukraine sent shockwaves through the Biden administration, prompting urgent action to prevent catastrophe.
According to AP News, journalist Bob Woodward's new book "War" reveals that U.S. intelligence pointed to a 50% chance of Russia using tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine during a critical moment of the conflict. The book details the scramble within the U.S. government to prevent such a devastating scenario from unfolding.
In late September 2022, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan received alarming intelligence suggesting that Russian President Vladimir Putin was seriously considering the use of nuclear weapons to avoid major battlefield losses in Ukraine. This information came as Ukrainian forces were making significant gains, particularly in the strategic city of Kherson.
U.S. Administration's Swift Response to Nuclear Threat
The Biden administration moved quickly to address the potential nuclear crisis. President Biden instructed Sullivan to communicate with Russian officials, warning of severe consequences if nuclear weapons were used. The president also reached out directly to Putin, emphasizing the "catastrophic consequences" that would follow any nuclear deployment.
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin engaged in a tense conversation with his Russian counterpart, Sergei Shoigu, in October 2022. Austin delivered a stern warning about the global implications of using nuclear weapons in Ukraine.
According to Woodward's account, Austin told Shoigu:
We know you are contemplating the use of tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine. Any use of nuclear weapons on any scale against anybody would be seen by the United States and the world as a world-changing event. There is no scale of nuclear weapons that we could overlook or that the world could overlook.
Diplomatic Efforts to Prevent Nuclear Escalation
The U.S. government also sought assistance from other world powers to deter Russia from taking such a drastic step. Recognizing China's influence over Russia, President Biden reached out to Chinese President Xi Jinping to stress the importance of nuclear deterrence.
In November 2022, Biden and Xi met and jointly declared their opposition to the use or threat of nuclear weapons in Ukraine. This diplomatic effort was seen as a crucial step in preventing further escalation of the conflict.
Woodward's book also reveals President Biden's frustration with the Obama administration's response to Russia's actions in 2014, when it seized Crimea and parts of the Donbas region. Biden reportedly criticized the lack of action at that time, suggesting it may have emboldened Putin's later aggression in Ukraine.
The book quotes Biden as saying to a close friend in December: "They f----- up in 2014. Barack never took Putin seriously."
Ongoing Concerns and International Response
The threat of nuclear weapons use in Ukraine has remained a significant concern throughout the conflict. Putin and other Russian officials have frequently made veiled threats regarding Russia's nuclear arsenal, raising tensions with the West.
In response, the United States and its allies have continued to support Ukraine while carefully calibrating their assistance to avoid further escalation. The Biden administration has been cautious about providing certain long-range weapons to Ukraine, fearing they could be used to strike deep within Russian territory.
The revelations in Woodward's book underscore the delicate balance world leaders must maintain in addressing the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. While supporting Ukraine's sovereignty, they must also work to prevent a potentially catastrophic escalation that could have far-reaching global consequences.
