The recent Minuteman III failure and termination of the unarmed intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) has raised pressing questions about the U.S.'s nuclear modernization credibility.

The failure, which occurred amid an operational test, is the second since 2018 for the advanced ICBM system - an integral component of the country's nuclear deterrent triad.

The Minuteman III and Its Significance to U.S. Nuclear Deterrence

The Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) has been a cornerstone of America's strategic defense policy since its inception. Stationed in various locales across the U.S, with approximately 400 units in total, the Minuteman III's operational readiness and reliability have largely underscored its critical role in maintaining a credible U.S. nuclear deterrent.

As the linchpin of the national nuclear triad, which consists of land, air, and sea-based nuclear capabilities, the Minuteman III's primary function is to preserve strategic balance. By providing a reliable and responsive capability to counter any nuclear threat, it enhances the U.S.'s ability to deter aggression and assure its allies of its defense commitments.

However, this recent Minuteman III failure marks the second incident since 2018 and has raised concerns about the reliability of the technology behind the missiles. Despite this, there is a prevailing belief that the Minuteman III remains a dependable asset.

While the missile system itself has demonstrated reliability, experts recommend urgent upgrades to the silo, electronics, and warhead components.

The speculation surrounding the latest failure revolves around the possibility that the U.S. Air Force was testing new elements during operation, including a non-standard trajectory or different types of equipment. Notwithstanding, the failure has not distracted from future operations, with more tests promised at Vandenberg Space Force base in 2023. This resilience in testing reaffirms the central role of the Minuteman III within America's nuclear deterrence strategy.

Modernization Plans and the LGM-35A Sentinel

The U.S. defense strategy prioritizes the ongoing modernization of military technology. The U.S. plans to establish the LGM-35A Sentinel as the new backbone of its land-based nuclear deterrence, replacing the Minuteman III.

The development of Sentinel ICBMs is a significant undertaking anticipated to go live operationally within the next decade. The planned completion of Sentinel tasks by 2030 is part of the Pentagon's broader modernization agenda, encompassing nuclear forces on land, in the air, and at sea.

The journey towards modernizing these critical systems features several components like the development of a reentry vehicle for the new ICBMs. The U.S. has brought on Defense technology giant Lockheed Martin to facilitate this. The company's expertise in creating cutting-edge defense technology will be instrumental in the project's success, with completion expected by 2039.

However, the path towards this modernization isn't without challenges. Prominent voices from Congress, including Rep. Adam Smith (D-Wash.), the Ranking Member of the House Armed Services Committee, have called into question the cost implications of the Sentinel program and the wider modernization agenda.

Footage of the Launch

Conclusion

The recent failure of the LGM-30G Minuteman III ICBM has sparked a conversation about the robustness of the U.S.'s nuclear deterrent capabilities and the need to modernize its triad of nuclear forces.

Despite the missile system's age, experts still consider the technology behind the Minuteman III reliable. However, they acknowledge the necessity of upgrading system components such as silos, electronics, and warheads.

In anticipation of these updates, the U.S. aims to replace the Minuteman III with the new LGM-35A Sentinel ICBMs. This ambitious project takes center stage in the Pentagon's modernization agenda, targeting operational readiness by 2030. The plan already involves heavyweights in defense technology manufacturing, with Lockheed Martin contracted to develop a reentry vehicle for the new ICBMs.

Yet, concerns remain. The recent failures and discussion around the costs of modernization have led to scrutiny from some members of Congress, necessitating more rigorous planning and transparency in the execution of these projects. However, the U.S. military remains committed to its schedule, with future tests expected to proceed, barring any detection of flight problems.

As more tests for the Minuteman III and the development of the Sentinel ICBMs loom on the horizon, these serve as reminders that while the path to a modern, robust nuclear deterrent is fraught with technical challenges and complex cost considerations, it is a journey the U.S. is committed to, for strategic balance and national security.